Power battery industry shuffles up, and about 30 battery factories may collapse during the year

This year, half of the entire battery industry is fire and half is ice. The top-level policies such as the implementation of the double-integration policy and the prohibition of production and prohibition of the sale of fuel vehicles on the agenda allow the industry to see the country’s strong determination to develop new energy sources and spread hopes for power batteries; at the same time, structural overcapacity, rising raw material prices, price pressures It also became a pain that the industry had to face. At the fifth lithium battery “Davos” forum held in Shantou, Guangdong, people from the industry conducted in-depth discussions on the above-mentioned hot topics.

Capacity expansion accelerates

Looking at the lithium battery market pattern this year, there are two obvious changes: First, under the boom of investment expansion, M&A and restructuring, the competition among leading enterprises has intensified; second, in the field of power batteries, the application of the ternary lithium battery market has greatly increased.

The data provided good evidence. According to the statistics on the investment expansion and mergers and acquisitions of lithium batteries and their upstream materials from the beginning of 2016 to the first half of 2017, of the 143 investment projects included in the statistics, 123 projects announced investment amounts totaling 230.7 billion yuan; Among the 63 restructuring projects included in the statistics, 60 projects announced the transaction amount, which totaled 130.6 billion yuan.

Under the wave of expansion, reports of overcapacity expansion and increased competition are also reported from time to time. In the Ningde era, IPO listing was launched, and SAIC, Dongfeng, Chang'an and other car companies marched in groups. The semi-annual valuation surged over 100 billion yuan; BYD, with a market value of over 100 billion yuan, also began to adjust its strategy to split the battery segment and marketize its business. , and accelerate the layout of the international market, the United States alone to build the largest electric bus factory in the United States; Lishen battery is also in 2017 to develop the "double 10 billion" target - more than 10 billion in production capacity, sales over 10 billion; BAK battery in early November It also announced that it will invest RMB 14.3 billion in the construction of the BAK Industrial Park in Jining Economic Development Zone, Shandong Province ...

The overcapacity associated with the expansion of production and the industry reshuffle are also accelerating. "With a large influx of capital, many industries now have industrial surpluses." Insiders point to the problem.

According to industry sources, the cumulative installed capacity of lithium batteries in the first 10 months of this year was 18.1 GWh, an increase of 31.43% year-on-year. A total of 76 battery manufacturers formed an effective installed capacity, and the number is expected to be around 80 throughout the year. "It was 109 last year, which means that there will be about 30 battery factories going bankrupt this year, and the industry reshuffle is fully open."

In the eyes of people in the industry, the whole industry is crazy because it is driven by the market. As of the third quarter of this year, the total capacity of the top 20 power battery companies in China was 102.2 Gwh, far exceeding the installed capacity of lithium batteries, and the overcapacity was beyond doubt. "In the future, the entire automotive power battery industry will only have a few companies remaining."

In addition, due to the impact of new energy vehicles subsidizing the New Deal, ternary lithium batteries with higher energy densities have seen explosive growth this year, and their application in the field of power batteries has become mainstream.

According to industry sources, from the perspective of various types of batteries, among the total installed capacity of 18.1 GWh of lithium in the first 10 months, ternary/manganese-based batteries accounted for 55.03% with 9.96GWh, of which lithium manganate batteries were less than 0.9GWh. Lithium iron phosphate battery accounted for 43.51% of 7.88GWh, compared with 44.27% in the previous 9 months, it fell.

It is also known that large-scale lithium iron phosphate battery companies such as Ningde Times, BYD, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech have all started to increase their ternary lithium battery capacity. BYD publicly stated that currently all of its plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles have used ternary batteries. In the future, the planning for passenger vehicles, including plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles, will gradually use ternary batteries.

Take measures and reduce costs

Profit is the eternal goal pursued by the company, but this year affected by the subsidy of new energy vehicles, the battery company is under tremendous pressure. How to reduce costs has also become one of the topics discussed in this conference. "The reduction in battery cost will inevitably start with reducing the cost of various materials. We must make preparations for cost reduction in all aspects of energy and raw materials," said Yang Bo, general manager of Qingdao Lanke Membrane Materials Co., Ltd.

“This year, the cost pressure of power battery companies is very high. The cathode materials cobalt, nickel, manganese and anode materials have risen sharply.” Hu Bo, general manager of Shanghai Shanshan Technology Co., Ltd. added, “In terms of cost reduction of anode materials, our approach is to expand. This year, we announced the construction of an integrated 100,000 tons anode material base in Baotou, from raw material processing to graphitization to finished products, all completed at this site, which will reduce transportation costs and dependence on other processing companies. At the same time, it also established joint ventures with some of China's major raw material companies and occupied certain resources by investing in raw materials."

Tian Hanrong, chairman of Shenzhen Times Hi-Tech Co., Ltd., believes that the cost reduction of enterprises is a long-term task, and there are many methods. The main thing is scale. "We must adhere to long-term technical input, consider large-scale production, and increase the efficiency. At the same time, the upstream and downstream industries will form a win-win cooperation and form a long-term and sustainable virtuous circle."

According to the high price of battery materials, Li Qinghai, vice president of Guangdong Lunshi New Energy, believes that companies do batteries, "are not afraid of material prices are high or low, are most afraid of instability, and they are very difficult for battery companies to accept." He suggested that The establishment of a strategic reserve market for cobalt, copper, nickel and lithium at the national or industry level to stabilize the price market will facilitate the healthy development of the industry.

Recycling market potential

From the perspective of the entire industrial chain, the development of new energy vehicles will inevitably bring about a large number of waste batteries. How to do a good job of recycling and realize the closed-loop industrial chain is the current hot spot in the industry. At the same time, recycling is also an effective way to solve the scarcity of resources, especially the current high prices of ternary materials, the value of recovery began to show.

However, although battery recycling is a hot topic, the battery recycling industry has not actually done it. For Wu Hui, this is more of an economic issue. "New energy vehicles only began mass production two or three years ago. There are really a lot of used batteries that should be eliminated in 2018 and 2019. For companies engaged in battery recycling, the profit turning point is in 2019. Many battery manufacturers either The OEM thinks recycling is a burden, but in the future it is an opportunity to make money,” he said bluntly.

Caidong, the general manager of Far East Foster, is optimistic about the potential of the recycling market in the future. “Recycling the total output value may be several billion yuan at present. There will be a rapid increase in car batteries at the back, and the recovery volume may reach 10 billion.” He further stated that. Compared to direct use in resource recovery, the greatest value of decommissioning power batteries is used in ladder utilization, such as energy storage, small transportation tools, etc. This market has a large demand for decommissioning power batteries, and there is great market excavation space.

In the current situation of poor economic recovery and low corporate enthusiasm, Shenzhen Shouting Power Chief Engineer Shi Shouzhong suggested that “the government can give some supportive policies at this stage, such as taxation or financial subsidies. But in the long-term development, In order to solve this problem through technological advancement, it is possible that in the future, countries will have to issue corresponding standards, and if there is no battery system that recovers value, production will not be allowed."

In order to facilitate battery recycling, Yi Shouzhong further suggested that besides strengthening the development and application of lithium battery recycling technology, the front end of the battery design, battery production process, etc. should also be taken into account in favor of the recovery of the back end.